Afghanistan Crisis : Why is India most concerned about Afghanistan
For the first time in global ‘geopolitics,’ all countries want the problem of Afghanistan to be solved almost in the same way. Though all countries have their own objectives behind it.The law and order situation in that country is heading for further uncertainty as the United States begins a process to withdraw all American troops from Afghanistan before September 15, 2021. The rapid pace with which the Taliban has captured Afghanistan's Districts, especially rural areas, has become a more worrying issue in today’s context. According to the Taliban, they have already brought 85% of the territory under their control. In parallel, the Taliban has declared the ‘Islamic Canonical Law'(Sharia) on occupied territories. The Taliban has banned women from working and many surrendered Afghan soldiers have also been sentenced to death.The US has failed to resist the Taliban despite training more than two lakh military forces.One of the main reasons for this is lack of leadership.Many of the old officers weren’t appointed in the process of forming the Afghan military.Moreover Afghan soldiers were generally used in defensive activities.They have also failed to challenge the Taliban because Afghan soldiers are underused in offensive acts. Afghanistan is known as the ‘Graveyard of Empire', because many superpower countries enter Afghanistan but return after humiliating themselves.The Britishers came in the 19th century.They had to bear a very humiliating defeat.In the 20th century,the Soviet Union came to Afghanistan and returned after nine years with a lot of embarrassement.In the 21st century ,the USA came to Afghanistan and is now returning in shame.The whole world knows that Pakistan has an undeniable role to play in the Taliban being such a powerful organization.Since Russia captured Afghanistan in 1979 ,Pakistan has been providing money, materials, weapons and moral support to the Taliban and other militant organizations.Pakistan considers Afghanistan a strategic asset in the geopolitical definition.The crisis in Afghanistan has also made Pakistan more worried this time.Because a declined peace strategy could spark an all-out civil war in Afghanistan and an enormous inflow of refugees into Pakistani territory. Violence in Afghanistan would also overfill into Pakistan, destabilizing its conflict-prone western border as Taliban gains empower the Afghan insurgents’ Pakistani Deobandi militant allies. When India and Pakistan gained independence from the British in 1947,the Durand line between Pakistan and Afghanistan was made a permanent border.Afghanistan wasn’t happy with it . Afghanistan wanted more area from Pakistan and the reason for it was that the majority of people in Afghanistan are of the ethnicity pashtuns. That is why Pakistan is worried that Afghanistan's militant activities don’t spread to Pakistan.The overabundance impacts of the NATO forces departure from Afghanistan already have the Central Asian states of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan worried.Because if Taliban activity in Afghanistan increases,many refugees will move to these Central Asian countries. Tehran worries both Taliban rule and Afghanistan returning to civil war, a destabilizing possibility inclined to jeopardize the country’s ethnic Persian and Shiite communities, send more waves of Afghan refugees across the border, and empower Sunni militancy in the region. “Iran is going to be harmed immensely by chaos and civil war in Afghanistan,” said Fatemeh Aman, a nonresident senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, citing, in particular, Tehran’s fear of the Islamic State’s Afghanistan affiliate gaining ground. “They see the partial rule as the best-case scenario, with the Taliban in power.”[i]Many are of the view that China will be most benefited from the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan.Since the US military continued it’s struggle against the Taliban in Afghanistan since 2001,China has taken advantage of this situation to make profits by investing billions of dollars in copper and other mining and various projects.With the US withdrawal on the horizon,China has sought to keep channels open to both the Taliban and Afghan forces, appealing for a powerful resolution to decades of conflict that predated US intervention.It has been a delicate diplomatic balance.[ii]But in Muslim militant organization ‘East Turkestan Islamic Movement'(ETIM) in China also received help from the Taliban in Afghanistan.Yet China fears that the militant outfit could increase extremist activities in China’s Muslim-dominated provinces with the help of the Taliban.
Why is India most concerned about Afghanistan?
Taliban
activities have become a major problem for India.An analysis report by U.S. intelligence agencies in late
June revealed that the current government in Kabul could collapse within six
months of the withdrawal of US troops.And if that really happens, no one else
doubts that the Taliban will take power again after 20 years. Many other
countries are worried about the possibility that the Taliban will again control
Afghanistan, but india is probably most worried. Afghanistan's importance to
India's security and economic and geopolitical interests is immense. As a
result, India is now in a critical crisis. India is the country that was
most quick to increase its influence in Afghanistan since the Taliban was ousted
from power in the US military campaign twenty years ago in 2001.The hydropower plant in Herat province is India’s largest
project in Afghanistan,spending USD 3billion.After the reconstruction,the
dam,known as Salma dam,was renamed the Indo-Afghanisthan friendship Dam,which
was inaugurated by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in June 2016.The attack
on the dam,considered a symbol of Afghan-India relations,may have raised fears
among India about the Taliban’s motives . Afghanistan is very important
for India to enter the Central Asian market. India plans to build two pipelines
with Iran and Central Asia through Afghanistan. But the concern about internal
security is even greater.Government of India has
invested about 12 billion in social, economic, transportation, irrigation etc
for the betterment of Afghanistan.There is a lot of potential for the Taliban
to target in these aspects.Moreover Indians living in Afghanistan or doing government
work have always been the target of the Taliban.But Taliban militants as well
as many militants working as mercenary soldiers in Afghanistan can increase the
activities of militants by entering the Kashmir valley with the direct or
indirect help of Pakistan. India has invested more than $3billion in
more than 400 socio-economic and major infrastructure projects in the last two
decades to influence Afghanistan. In addition to dozens of projects for
education, health, sports, cultural development, India has built a 218 km long
important road called the Zarang-Delaram Highway. They have also built a new
Afghan parliament building in Kabul.So if these
projects are closed at this time then India will suffer a lot of economic
losses. India's policy makers are now restless about that thought.
But
India’s role in this regard has taken everyone by surprise, because India has
already moved to negotiate with Afghanistan.India’s Foreign Minister
Dr.S.Jaishankar’s visit to Qatar in June has taken significance.The talks
between India’s Foreign Affairs Minister and Zalmay Khalilzad (Former United
States Ambassador to the United Nations) in Doha as well as Taliban leader
Mullah Abdul Gabi’s willingness to hold talks with India have raised a new
dimension in this regard. So far as the situation in Afghanistan is very grim. The
most worrying thing for India in this regard is that the alliance
between Pakistan and the Taliban is likely to trigger a challenge to India. And
in this case, China is more likely to cooperate with Pakistan in the war.
Papori Borah
MA 2nd Semester
Dibrugarh University
References :
[i]
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/07/10/iran-taliban-afghanistan-us-troop-withdrawal/?outputType=amp
3. https://thediplomat.com/2015/07/central-asias-stake-in-afghanistans-war/
4. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2644271
5. https://www.bbc.com/bengali/news-57814763.amp6. https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/china-pakistan-outline-joint-action-to-align-afghanistan-strategies/article35519129.ece/amp/
6.https://niyomiyabarta.com/epaper/24072021/details.php?date=26072021&page=6&article=2.gif&cid=2
Borthakur Ranjit Brigadier.
(2021,July 24).’Afghanistanr Jotil Poristhiti ‘.
Very informative , good initiative Papori
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